One third of a million people may be killed or injured on GB roads 2011-2030, says report for PACTS

One third of a million people may be killed or injured on GB roads 2011-2030, says report for PACTS

Press Notice: Issued Friday 21 March. Embargoed to 00:01 Monday 24th March 2014

Parliamentary group calls on Government to prevent one third of a million people being killed or seriously injured on British roads by 2030.

A third of a million people will be killed or seriously injured on the roads in Great Britain over the two decades ending 2030 unless the government acts, according to a report1 commissioned by the PACTS. At 2012 prices this would represent a loss to society valued at about £110 billion. The sharp falls in deaths and injuries seen over the period of the recession may be coming to an end as the economy picks up.2 Projecting a range of long-term trends, and allowing for projected changes in population, traffic and other factors and continuation of current road safety policies, about 1,000 people are likely to be killed and about a further 11,000 seriously injured in 2030.

PACTS executive director David Davies said, “A third of a million people, the equivalent of the population of Reading, will be killed or seriously injured on British roads before 2030 if current trends are allowed to continue. There are proven, cost-effective and affordable ways to make our roads safer. Business as usual is not good enough. Ambitious targets and properly resourced interventions are needed. Work should start now on a new national road safety strategy. We can no longer rely on the recession to reduce casualties.”

Report authors Kit Mitchell and Richard Allsop3 added, “Road safety is a British success story, but there is still much more that can be done at relatively low cost, to reduce casualties to numbers a good deal lower than those projected in our report.”

The full report will be released at the UK Road Safety Summit in London on Thursday 27 March where politicians and road safety experts will discuss the priorities and options for future road safety strategies for the UK as a whole and in the devolved administrations. Transport Minister Robert Goodwill MP will give the keynote address.4

See figure and table attached.

NOTES

  1. C G B (Kit) Mitchell and R E Allsop, Projections of road casualties in Great Britain to 2030, March 2014, published by PACTS. Peer review and publication of the report has been supported by contributions from the Institute of Advanced Motorists (IAM) and the GEM Motoring Assist Road Safety Charity.
  2. For the year ending September 2013, 1,730 people were killed, a 2 per cent drop from 1,761 in the year ending September 2012. Figures for the whole of 2013 will be published in June. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/277527/road-accidents-and-safety-quarterly-estimates-q3-2013.pdf
  3. The report authors are specialists in road safety statistics and analysis. Dr Kit Mitchell worked at the Transport Research Laboratory. Richard Allsop is Emeritus Professor of Transport Studies at UCL and a director of PACTS, worked on monitoring the reduction in road casualties in GB between 1988 and 2010 and has led the European Transport Safety Council PIN programme monitoring casualty reduction across Europe since 2006.
  4. The UK Road Safety Summit: The Way Ahead will be held on Thursday 27th March at Mary Ward House, London WC1H 9SN. The Summit is organised by PACTS in association with Landor LINKS, and sponsored by esure.
  5. The Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety (PACTS) is a registered charity and an associate Parliamentary Group. Its charitable objective is “To protect human life through the promotion of transport safety for the public benefit”.
  6. Further media information: David Davies, executive director, 020 7222 7732 david.davies@pacts.org.uk

Summary Table: GB road casualties projected to 2030

Road user Severity

Casualties   in 2012

Projected   casualties in 2030

Percentage   change from 2012

All road users Killed

1,754

1,000

-43%

Serious

23,039

11,000

-52%

Slight

170,930

150,000

-12%

KSI

24,793

12,000

-52%

All

195,723

162,000

-17%

Car occupants Killed

801

520

-35%

Serious

8,232

3,700

-55%

Slight

116,675

Probably about 100,000

-14%

Pedestrians Killed

420

160

-62%

Serious

5,559

2,500

-55%

Slight

19,239

10,000

-48%

Motorcyclists and moped users Killed

328

Probably about 300

-8%

Serious

5,000

2,800

-44%

Slight

13,892

8,900

-36%

Pedal cyclists(DfT forecast) Killed

118

57

-52%

Serious

3,222

About 2,500

-22%

Slight

15,751

About 11,500

-27%

Childrenaged 0 – 15 Killed

61

15

-75%

Serious

2,211

700

-68%

Slight

14,979

10,200

-32%

Car driversaged 70+ Killed

102

60

-41%

Serious

705

400

-43%

Slight

4,075

Probably about 4,000

-2%

 

kit mitchell graph

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

kit mitchell 2

 

 

 

 

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